The Institute for Energy Security (IES) is predicting an imminent surge in domestic fuel prices, bringing an end to a recent spell of stability at pumps across the country.
IES indicated that behind this ominous forecast lies a global upheaval in the crude oil market which is threatening to send shockwaves through the market, based on indications from the October first pricing window.
There has been an increase in the international market price of petrol by 0.63%, diesel by 5.40% and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 2.43%, as well as a 0.59% depreciation of the local currency against the U.S. dollar on the forex market.
The specific price increase for each petroleum product is as follows: petrol, 1% per liter; diesel, 3 percent per liter; and LPG, 1.5% per kilogram (kg).
According to IES, “Brent Crude price experienced a lull on Thursday after soaring to more than US$97 per barrel on Wednesday as traders began to take profits and the markets’ macro focus shifted to increasing interest rates.
Higher interest rates historically have been detrimental to oil prices since they often result in decreased demand for oil due to declining activity and rising expenses. Interestingly, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have argued that a hawkish Fed may actually be advantageous this time around because it will probably make OPEC+ producers more cautious for a longer period of time.
Brent crude traded at an average of US$93.56 per barrel over two weeks of monitoring in the second pricing window for September 2023.
Also, the Global Standard & Poor’s (S&P’s) Platt averages tracked during the second pricing window of September show price increases for all refined products. At the close of the pricing window on 26 September 2023, the price of gasoline, gasoil, and LPG traded at US$975.73 per metric tonne, US$992.95 per metric tonne, and US$587.43 per metric tonne respectively.
The new prices pose a net price increment of 0.63%, 5.29%, and 2.43% for all refined products respectively on the world fuel market.
“IES Economic Desk’s monitoring of the local currency data on the foreign exchange (Forex) market for the period under review indicates: the Ghana Cedi traded at GHC11.54p from GHC11.47p at the close of the pricing window depreciating by 0.59% against the U.S. dollar,” the report signed by Research Analyst at IES, Adam Yakubu, said.
IES added for liquid fuels, petrol prices remained unchanged among OMCs monitored for the September 2023 second pricing window.